NFL player props: 5 best bets for Week 13
Lucky Week 13 involves a lot of hard feelings and revenge.
This week's picks include the following. A Hall of Fame QB looking to erase awful memories from earlier this year. A young QB looking to change the pecking order in his division. A matchup of the best young wide receiver and rookie cornerback in the league. A revenge play for a star receiving ready the make his former team regret moving on him. And the beneficiary of the revenge play of the year.
Get your popcorn ready. Revenge is in the air and it smells salty.
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NFL week 13 prop bet picks and predictions
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 8:10 a.m. ET.
Justin Fields scores a rushing/receiving touchdown (+140)
vs. Green Bay Packers, Sunday 1 p.m. ET.
Since the Bears decided to allow Fields to run, he has scored at least 1 rushing touchdown in his last 5 games. In his first 6 games, he only scored 1 rushing TD, which came against the Packers.
It seems like everyone in the NFC North is sensing a swift and pronounced changing of the guard. The Vikings and Lions both got the Packers off their back. If the Bears are going to make it a trifecta, Fields will likely need to take 1 in with his legs.
He has proclaimed himself healthy. That's good enough for me.
Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson OVER 83.5 receiving yards (-115)
vs. New York Jets, Sunday 1 p.m. ET.
Jefferson and Jets CB Sauce Gardner will be in a matchup a lot of people are talking about Sunday. Sauce has earned his respect. Jefferson has taken it and dominated.
The Jets will leave Gardner one-on-one with Jefferson for numerous plays. The Vikings have the confidence in Jefferson to simply put up 50/50 balls and let him go get it because he has won enough 20/80 balls to garner that trust.
The way J.J. piles up yards, they will only have to hit on 2 deep shots and cover the rest with slants and bubble screens.
Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes UNDER 308.5 passing yards (-115)
at Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET.
I always take pause when I see a passing number over 300 yards on the O/U board. Although it's near Mahomes' career average, it's asking a lot against a team with a solid pass defense.
If I thought Kansas City was going to lose this game, I would be all over the Over. I think the Chiefs are going to exorcise the demons of January's 2 losses to the Bengals and play much more of a ball-control game mixing the run and pass and forcing Cincinnati to be off-balance.
I never like betting against Mahomes, but I don't think he needs this number to win the game.
Cleveland Browns RB Nick Chubb OVER 94.5 rushing yards (-115)
at Houston Texans, Sunday 1 p.m. ET.
Chubb will be secondary in the lead-up to this game. It's all Deshaun Watson all the time on his return to Houston.
Watson will get his, but the Browns are going to be primed to obliterate the Texans, who own Cleveland's draft for the short-term future.
Chubb may have to play sidekick early as the Browns let Watson throw early and often to make a statement. But there are few scenarios that don't have Cleveland running Chubb 20 or more times.
It's a big number, but if you're anticipating a significant number of carries like I am, you don't need to pop too many to hit it.
Philadelphia WR A.J. Brown OVER 77.5 receiving yards (-115)
vs. Tennessee Titans, Sunday 1 p.m. ET.
There are scenarios that will have both teams running the ball and bleeding the clock, but Brown and Eagles QB Jalen Hurts are like brothers, and Brown is facing the team that shipped him out of Nashville.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Brown targeted 3 or 4 times in the first drive alone just to make a point. Even if the Eagles can run easily on the Titans - far from a certainty - Brown is going to get his chances.
Expect 10 or more targets. I like my odds on his getting 78 yards if that happens.
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